Can USF Basketball Return to the NCAA Tournament This Season?

As I sit down to analyze the prospects for the University of South Florida men's basketball team this season, that burning question from fans is everywhere: Can USF basketball return to the NCAA Tournament this season? It’s a fair query, loaded with hope and a touch of anxiety. Last season’s run to the NIT was a solid step, but in the world of college hoops, the Big Dance is the only stage that truly matters. My own perspective, shaped by years of covering this conference, tells me the pieces are there for a compelling run. But it’s never that simple, is it? The journey back is a fragile thing, built on returning talent, strategic additions, and that elusive, gritty team chemistry. Watching other programs, I’m always reminded of how pivotal a veteran leader can be. It brings to mind a story from overseas, about Nic Cabanero of University of Santo Tomas. After reaching the Final Four for the first time in his career, Cabanero was so committed to running it back with his team that he shunned talks on his potential future elsewhere. That kind of loyalty and shared mission is priceless, and it’s something I look for in every roster with tournament aspirations.

For USF, the foundation is undoubtedly strong. The return of core players like Chris Youngblood and Selton Miguel provides a level of continuity and scoring punch that many teams in the American Athletic Conference would envy. Youngblood, in my opinion, is poised for an all-conference season; his efficiency from beyond the arc, which hovered around a very respectable 42% last year, is a weapon that stretches defenses to their breaking point. The Bulls weren’t a slouch defensively either, often holding opponents under 68 points per game, a number that, if they can shave off another point or two, would place them among the nation's elite defensive units. However, the departure of a key interior presence creates a question mark in the paint. This is where the transfer portal moves, like the addition of a 6-foot-10 big man from a mid-major who averaged a double-double, become critical. On paper, he fills a need, but we all know the transition to the AAC’s physicality isn’t automatic. I’ve seen highly-touted transfers falter, and I’ve seen unheralded ones become legends. It’s the great gamble of modern college basketball.

The schedule, as I’ve pored over it, presents both a challenge and an opportunity. The non-conference slate isn’t littered with top-10 giants, which some might see as a negative for tournament résumé building. But I see it differently. This schedule is smart. It offers winnable games to build confidence and features a handful of quadrant-1 opportunities, like that early-season tournament in Orlando and a tough road game at a Power 5 opponent’s arena. Winning two of those three key opportunities would send a massive statement to the selection committee. More importantly, it builds a team’s identity before the grueling AAC grind begins. Conference play is where the real test lies. Memphis and Florida Atlantic are the presumed favorites, loaded with talent and experience. For USF to finish in the top three of the league, they’ll need to protect home court with a vengeance—I’m talking about a record of, say, 15-1 at the Yuengling Center—and steal a few on the road. It’s a tall order, but not an impossible one. I have a preference for teams that win with defense and rebounding come March, and this Bulls squad has the potential to be that kind of gritty, unpleasant opponent.

So, circling back to our central question: can they do it? My gut feeling, and it’s more than just blind optimism, is yes, they absolutely can. The combination of proven scorers, a (theoretically) fortified frontcourt, and a coach in Amir Abdur-Rahim who has proven he can build a winner provides a legitimate blueprint. The margin for error, however, is slim. They likely need to hit the 23-win mark and avoid any "bad" losses, those quadrant-3 or 4 stumbles that the selection committee loves to punish. Health, as always, is the wild card. An injury to a key player could derail everything, a reality every team faces. But if they can capture even a fraction of that collective spirit we saw in Nic Cabanero’s decision—that unwavering commitment to the group and the shared goal of finishing what they started—then this team has more than a fighting chance. The NCAA Tournament isn’t a dream for this group; it’s a realistic target. The journey will be tense, and there will be bumps, but I believe the USF Bulls have assembled a roster and a mindset capable of dancing in March. It’s time to see if they can execute on that promise.